In recent weeks the President-Elect Trump has shown himself to be certifiably insane. Just like Mad King George who was crowned in 1762 and went on to lose the 13 colonies in the American War of Independence. His ravings about attacking Panama, seizing Greenland, and making Canada the 51st state all remind us of his love for autocrats like Putin and Kim Jong-il. He desperately wants to act out his frustrations on the world and his perceived enemies. He wants to declare war like Putin, fire missiles like Netanyahu at Hamas and Hezbollah, and threaten other world powers like Kim Jong-il. In a short time, he will occupy the White House and will be surrounded by MAGA sycophants willing to do his bidding. Then he will hit the proverbial wall!
The wall of American bureaucracy. Unfortunately for Trump, nothing will go easily. Within six months his plans will fail miserably. Hiking tariffs on Canada and Mexico will involve a long drawn-out negotiation and the result will not necessarily be to the advantage of the US. Trump allies will fill their pockets with bribes from various industrial concerns to avoid higher tariffs on their products. The USMCA treaty agreement will remain in place until July 2026. US Presidents don’t have a role in setting tariffs. This is the work of Congress where all the horse-trading goes on. Each Senator and Representative has vested interests depending on where they come from. Trump can order his trade czar, Robert Lighthizer, to start renegotiating the USMCA during the year but it will not be easy to get it through Congress. So let's forget about 25% tariffs, it isn’t going to happen.
Furthermore, declarations of war against Denmark ( a NATO partner) or Panama must have the support of Congress which will never happen. Trump’s hands are tied and wars are expensive. The US is in an untenable debt situation and there is no money available for his crazy international adventures. He cannot send US troops into Panama without the support of Congress which would only rubberstamp such action if there was a threat to US security. The same goes for Greenland. If he were to do so, his own party would impeach him.
The removal of illegal immigrants from the US is another hard nut to crack. There are numerous government agencies including Homeland Security and the DOJ who would need to go along with any attempt to remove large numbers of illegals. They would first need to round them up and put them in prison camps. The heartless separation of immigrant families would be the inevitable result and would dominate the evening news. This could be the next major political blunder for Trump’s Republicans.
Trump’s “efficient tsars”, Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, have mentioned how they want to cut some two billion dollars from the government budget. They will head up a new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) but an analysis of government expenditures shows that there is no way to cut such a huge amount without cutting entitlement programs like Medicare and Medicaid. They have talked about closing down the Department of Education, but this is a tiny fraction of the amount and weighs in at only $238 million. Maybe the Tesla CEO should have checked the numbers before he made his ridiculous predictions known.
You cannot run a government for long without accepting the basic facts of government. The US government is a huge bureaucracy. You need to know how it works to get anything done. Trump’s frustration will only grow in 2025 when his entire legislative agenda will be blocked by the Democrats and by infighting within his own party. Trump’s plans for “one powerful bill” covering tax cuts, immigration, and military spending will die a slow death in Congress. We can even expect serious debt default and a significant downgrade of the US credit rating in 2025. In August 2023 Fitch Ratings downgraded the credit rating to AA+ from AAA and it won’t be long before the other credit agencies follow suit. Then will come the 2026 midterm elections which will wipe the map of MAGA Republicans and Trump will become a lame-duck president. He will have accomplished nothing.
Trump is mad and totally unhinged. He is fighting imaginary enemies and the US will pay a very high price for electing such a fool as a leader. His Don Quixote style “tilting at windmills” struggle will only bring tragic results. He will be laughed at in foreign capitals and the lost prestige of the American government will be felt for decades to come.
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